Assessing the Predictive Power of Vulnerability Measures: Evidence from Panel Data for Argentina and Chile

Nº de Páginas: 36
Autor/es: Bérgolo, Marcelo
Áreas:
Editorial: Journal of Income Distribution 21(1): 28-64

This article carries out a validation exercise of vulnerability measures as predictors

of poverty at the aggregate and micro levels based on short and long term panel data

for Argentina and Chile. It then compares their performance to that of deprivation

indicators. The main findings indicate that while vulnerability measures are good

predictors of poverty in the aggregate, the same does not occur at household level.

These results imply that while useful, vulnerability estimates require incorporating

shocks to attenuate biased estimates if they are to be used for targeting purposes.