El impacto de la incertidumbre del tipo de cambio sobre las exportaciones: un análisis de panel VAR

In  this  paper  we  analyze  the  impact  of  exchange  rate  uncertainty  on  export  flows among a panel of 27 countries throughout the 1994/01-2014/12 period. In order to do this, we apply a panel vector autoregressive model approach. By dividing the panel into two subgroups that involve manufacturing-exporting and commodity-exporting economies, we observe a different effect of exchange rate uncertainty on exports. This has a negative impact in manufacturing-exporting countries, but does not affect commodity-exporting countries. This result appears to be explained by countries’ economics characteristics, involving the flexibility or rigidities of the export adjustment arising exchange rate uncertainty.