So Dissatisfied to Leave? The Role of Perceptions, Expectations and Beliefs on Youths’ Intention to Migrate: Evidence from a Developing Country

Abstract 

This study analyzes the extent to which Uruguayan youth’s economic dissatisfaction drives intention to migrate by exploring those factors that can affect people’s economic satisfaction. Causality is explored using instrumental variable analysis and conditional mixed process estimations. The findings of this study point to a causal negative relationship from economic satisfaction to youth’s desire to migrate in which economic satisfaction is instrumented through the ratio of an individual’s personal income relative to the average income of a certain reference group; specifically—individuals with the same education level. Also, results highlight the importance of individuals’ perceptions of the opportunities available in the country regarding social mobility, job access, housing and adequate income, in shaping youth’s reported economic satisfaction and therefore their desire to migrate.