Cuarto Seminario del Instituto de Economía

El martes 11 de agosto a las 12 horas por Zoom tendrá lugar el cuarto Seminario del Instituto de Economía. Los Seminario de Investigación del Instituto de Economía tienen una frecuencia semanal. En ellos se presentan avances de investigación o trabajos en curso sobre diversos tópicos disciplinares.

ID - 957 4591 5950
Contraseña - 4k?7YQk2U4

En esta ocasión Miguel Carriquiry, integrante del IECON, presentará "Impact of Climate Change on Global Agricultural Markets under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways" en co-autoría con J. Dumortier & A. Elobeid

Abstract

"We quantify changes in global agricultural trade by 2050 for maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat due to variations in commodity yields triggered by climate change. Our scenarios are differentiated by population levels and economic growth rates associated with three shared socioeconomic pathways. A baseline assuming no climate change is compared to a scenario consistent with a representative concentration pathway (RCP) assuming a radiative force of 8.5 W m-2, i.e., RCP8.5. The baseline and the scenarios will establish an upper and lower bound of economic effects associated with yield changes from climate change. Our results show price increases for maize of 61.3%-80.9%, for soybeans of 36.7%-51.7%, and for wheat of 5.4%-11.1% depending on the shared socioeconomic pathway. Rice benefits from CO2 fertilization and we see a relatively constant price decrease of 19.5%-19.9% across the scenarios. Global agricultural area for all scenarios is expected to be higher between 1.3% and 2.3% in 205 0. Depending on the crop and country/region, there are significant reductions in production especially for maize. Absolute changes in trade patterns are most pronounced for wheat and least for rice. The increase in cropland will lead to additional carbon emissions enforcing climate change. Intra- and inter-country welfare changes are inevitable under climate change given the increases in crop prices and changes in trade. Our policy implications highlight the importance of economic growth, which leads to lower commodity prices in absolute terms and hence, higher food security. Less cropland is used under the higher economic growth scenario, which represents a trade-o_ given the potential for higher carbon release under higher economic growth."

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