El jueves 11 de mayo a las 10 h en modalidad virtual tendrá lugar un Seminario de investigación en turismo. Vladislava Stanková y Riccardo Persio (Kore University of Enna, Italy) expondrá un trabajo llamado "What if it never happened?" Measuring the earthquake's effect on the tourism supply side.
Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), this longitudinal study examines the impact of the 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila (South Italy) on the local tourism sector. We apply this impact assessment approach to analyse the effects of the earthquake on the performance of accommodation rate and key indicators of local tourism performance, comparing the outcome of the event of interest (treated unit) with that of the control unit (synthetic unit). For this purpose, we built a balanced panel dataset with a time series from 2002 to 2019 based on ISTAT census data, including statistical data from 7,940 Italian municipalities and ORBIS - Bureau Van Dijk budget data for 247,520 firms. According to our results, while in the short term, there was a slump in tourism supply, mainly due to the extensive earthquake damage, in the medium term, the decisive contribution of economic aid led to a surprisingly rapid recovery of the sector. Overall, L'Aquila’s tourism sector is a resilient industry to shocks, with significant potential to pull the local economy out of the crisis if supported by virtuous policies. These findings have important policy implications, especially in light of the increasingly frequent natural disasters caused, in most cases, by ongoing climate change. Finally, this study fits into this broad debate with the ambition to partially bridge the gap between the available demand-side literature and the lack of supply-side evidence. It paves the way for several other future developments by using big data at the micro level on phenomena studied mainly at the NUTS1 level.