Seminario de investigación en turismo

Dejamos un breve resumen de lo que se hablará:

The knowledge of the transitory or permanent effect of previous economic crises or other types of shocks on the tourism sector is determinant to investigate the long-term dynamics of these destinations and their overcome of these shocks, which has important implications for policy. In this paper, we apply the unit root test with gradual change proposed by Leybourne, Newbold and Vougas (1998) and Harvey and Mills (2002) to identify the permanent or transitory nature of shocks of tourism in Mallorca, Sicily, and Sardinia, allowing that the long run evolution of tourism in a specific destination follows a S-shape trend, which is well described by a logistic or multilogistic curve. Our results confirm the transitory nature of the shocks, and the resilience of these three destinations. They also show that two concatenated S-shaped growth processes characterize the touristic development in Mallorca and Sicily from 1950 to 2019. In Mallorca, the first period of tourism growth took place in the sixties and the second began in the eighties. However, in Sicily, the maximum growth rates in both processes have been reached a decade later than in Mallorca. This delay caused the Italian island to lose its initial leadership in the number of tourist arrivals, while Mallorca’s early growth in tourism, together with the policies implemented, has turned the Spanish island into a hub for international tourism in the Mediterranean. The tests carried out for Sardinia found that tourism growth does not show an S-shaped behaviour, tourism grew at a slower pace than its two competitors, Sicily for domestic tourism and Mallorca, which took the advantage in the international tourism.