Español
English
Français
Italiano
Português
Русский
El miércoles 30 de julio, a las 14 horas, se llevará a cabo el seminario titulado "Learning Individual Reproductive Behavior from Aggregate Fertility Rates via Neural Posterior Estimation" a cargo de Daniel Ciganda e Ignacio Campón del Instituto de Estadística, Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, FCEA, Udelar.
La actividad se llevará a cabo en modalidad híbrida:
- Presencial, en el salón Multifuncional de la FCEA
- Virtual a través de una sala de Zoom (acceso directo)
- ID: 849 3003 7980
- Clave: #IESTA2025
Resumen:
Age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) provide the most extensive record of reproductive change, but their aggregate nature obscures the individual-level behavioral mechanisms that drive fertility trends. To bridge this micro-macro divide, we introduce a likelihood-free Bayesian framework that couples a demographically interpretable, individual-level simulation model of the reproductive process with Sequential Neural Posterior Estimation (SNPE). We show that this framework successfully recovers core behavioral parameters governing contemporary fertility, including preferences for family size, reproductive timing, and contraceptive failure, using only ASFRs. The framework's effectiveness is validated on cohorts from four countries with diverse fertility regimes. Most compellingly, the model, estimated solely on aggregate data, successfully predicts out-of-sample distributions of individual-level outcomes, including age at first sex, desired family size, and birth intervals. Because our framework yields complete synthetic life histories, it significantly reduces the data requirements for building microsimulation models and enables behaviorally explicit demographic forecasts.
