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  • SocSimFesT2021: Applied macroeconomic analysis and modelling in complex systems

SocSimFesT2021: Applied macroeconomic analysis and modelling in complex systems

En línea con el  Social Simulation Week 2020, organizado en September 2020, la Asociación Europea de Simulación Social (ESSA, por sus siglas en inglés) está organizando el Social Simulation FesT  (SocSimFesT2021).

En este evento, se realizarán 17 "tracks" diferentes y  una serie de charlas inspiradoras. El Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE - FCEA - UDELAR) organiza el workshop "Applied macroeconomic analysis and modelling in complex systems" el jueves 18 de marzo entre las 9:30 y las 12:45 (hora de Uruguay), donde se presentarán una serie de artículos y se abrirá un focus group de discusión sobre esta temática.

Más información en https://www.socsimfest21.eu/. Para asistir a las charlas, debe registrarse de forma gratuita en https://essa.wildapricot.org/event-4161068


Cronograma de actividades (en horario de Europa).

Monday March 15  
Inspirational talk: Be careful what you wish for - The highs and lows of modeling controversial public policy’ (Jason Thompson) 09.30-11.00
Social Simulation and Games 11.15-12.45
ABM for Historical Studies 11.15-12.45
Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Evidence using Social Simulation 13.30-16.45
Tutorial: Social Influence Modeling in Python Using defSim 13.30-16.45
Tuesday March 16  
Simulation in times of crisis 09.30-12.45
Sensitivity Analysis Made Easy with the EMA Workbench 09.30-12.45
The Lab in the Model, the Model in the Lab 13.30-16.45
Tutorial: Agent-based modeling in Python with Agentpy 13.30-16.45
Wednesday March 17  
Transformative social innovation 09.30-12.45
Using games in the field – A method to inform agent-based models 09.30-11.00
Microsimulation for Health Modelling 11.15-12.45
Inspirational talk: Quantifying the uncertainty in agent-based models (aka what the *$&^% is going on in my model and why?) - Alison Heppenstall and Nick Malleson 13.30-15.00
Mingle session 15.00-16.45
Thursday March 18  
ESSA@Work> 09.30-12.45
Modeling Values in Agents, Institutions, and Technologies 13.30-16.45
Applied macroeconomic analysis and modelling in complex systems 13.30-16.45
Friday March 19  
Tutorial: Mechanism-based social systems modelling: a hands-on tutorial 11.15-15.00
Social Identity 11.15-12.45
Artificial Sociality 13.30-15.00
Inspirational talk: Ethics, Law, and Simulation: Thinking about social simulation in the world (Marco Almada) 15.15-16.45

Workshop: Applied macroeconomic analysis and modelling in complex systems

Emiliano Alvarez, Juan Gabriel Brida & Silvia London. A bibliometric survey of macroeconomic topics in ABM.

 In recent decades, the analysis of economies and their different sectors has intensified through simulations based on agent-based models (ABM). This is especially relevant for macroeconomics, since these methodologies allow us to analyze macroeconomic phenomena from actions and the interaction between individuals.

 In this presentation, a bibliometric analysis of ABMs in macroeconomics is briefly shown from the information gathered in the databases of the Web of Science (WOS) and Scopus. The main results of this work show that ABMs have analyzed a wide spectrum of the most relevant topics in macroeconomics. There is a greater emphasis on credit crisis and financial instability, explained by the possibilities of this type of implementation to simulate network effects. These works are concentrated in a few research centers, mainly in Europe. In recent years, the agenda of topics to be addressed has grown, as well as the possibilities of a multidisciplinary agenda.

Nicolás Garrido. Bertarnd-Edgeworth markets in a Stock Flow Consistent Model.

This paper explores the effects that fluctuations coming from price in good markets can produce into the aggregate economy. In order to answer this question two techniques are employed. On the one hand a Macreconomic Agent Based Model is built and simulated. On the other hand a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the artificial economy is computed in each one of the simulated period. The Macroeconomic Agent Based Model allows a constructive representation of an economy, taking into account multiple nonlinearities and hetereogeneity related to adaptive behavior and endowments of the agents in the economy. The Social Accounting Matrix is a framework both for models of how an economy work as well as for the data which is useful to monitor its working. SAMs are widely employed in countries as the final product of the accounting of the society and the basic data representation to analyze the anticipate the effect of public policy. Therefore being able to explore how this system of information capture and represent an (artificial) economy provides useful insight for futures improvement in its representation. In the paper, some of the multipliers of the SAM matrix are used to anticipate the evolution of the simulated economy and preliminary conclusions are reported about how to improve the predictive capacity of these multipliers.

John B. Davis. Epistemological Perspectives on Simulations in Macroeconomics.

From an epistemological perspective, a macroeconomics involving simulations, agent-based modeling, heterogeneous expectations, and complexity reasoning employs an open system approach rather than the closed systems approach of standard mainstream macroeconomics. Following Simon (1962) on the nature of a complex system, open systems derive their openness from their dynamic, reflexive character. Groups of different agents interact at an agent-groups level, this interaction affects aggregate behavior across agent-groups, this feeds back on and affects agent-group level interaction, this again affects aggregate behavior across agent-groups, etc. in a continuing two-level, interactive dynamic process.

Closed systems approaches operate with traditional rational behavior microfoundations to generate aggregate level behavior in a one-way street manner freed of feedback effects on the micro agent level. These microfoundations function as investigators' entry points for the explanation of a system's aggregate performance. Open systems approaches, reflecting the Simon complexity dynamic, conjecture different possible entry points to allow investigators to examine different types of two-level interaction dynamics. Comparative analysis of different two-level systems makes simulations a principle method of investigation. Different simulation results can be evaluated with respect to their different entry point assumptions, and combinations of different entry point and results can then be evaluated for realism and policy potential in an evolving investigation of the macroeconomy.

Two important ontological implications of open system approaches are: (i) agent values are multi-dimensional, and (ii) time needs to be conceptualized in such a way that what is true changes over time in an evolutionary way. A consequence of (i) is that agents should be understood not as atomistic and maximizing but as socially embedded and continually adjusting. A consequence of (ii) is that economies need to be understood using dynamic rather than static temporal thinking, employing the past-present-future sequence, rather than the before-after sequence.

Lionello Punzo & Ralph Abraham. Experimenting with a cellular model of the Italian economy development.

With the advent of a United Nations standard for National Accounts, based upon a uniform sectoral scheme, comes a new opportunity for a massively parallel, complex-dynamical model for national economies, and thus, the world economy, and eventually a coupled model of the global environment-population-economy. In this paper, the dynamics of a model economy in this semi-disaggregate form is studied as a sequence of regime changes of cellular dynamata. This approach focuses on structural changes as dynamic phenomena, and is suited to qualitative comparative analyses, across spatially and/or temporally distributed systems (whole economies, regions, sectors). It deploys computational heuristics in which the system dynamics is computer-simulated, for theoretical purposes, on the basis of empirically observed data. As a preliminary step in this direction, we strive here to find a simple but adequate scheme of map of the plane into itself, as it results from our choice of only two monitoring variables.

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